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We looked into the data, and here's what we found...
Ahead of this year’s BRIT Awards in Manchester, the conversation around Song of the Year has been dominated by the bookies’ favourite, Lola Young. But when we looked at the data, we found a different story unfolding.
At Startle, we’re fascinated by how music connects with people - and how data can uncover the patterns behind those emotional connections. So, we analysed 49 years of BRIT Awards history to identify what really makes a Song of the Year winner.
The results? There could be a surprise on the night.
We analysed the last 46 winners since the category began in 1977, examining:
Our aim was simple: compare the historical “winning formula” with the 2026 nominees to predict who fits the profile best.
According to our modelling, Myles Smith’s Nice to Meet You has a 92% probability of winning based on historic BRIT trends.
Why?
Historically, male solo artists have dominated the category, and sustained chart performance has consistently correlated with public vote success. On paper, Myles Smith fits the profile almost perfectly.
In just two years, the Luton-born artist has amassed over a billion streams, won the Rising Star BRIT Award, and rapidly become one of the UK’s most exciting breakout talents. From a purely data-driven perspective, he ticks all the boxes.
Joint second in our data model are:
Their track Rein Me In scores a 70% likelihood of winning, bolstered by a record-breaking 35-week chart climb to number one.
In third place sits Victory Lap by Fred again..,Skepta and PlaqueBoyMax, with a 65% projected chance.
But here’s where it gets interesting.
When we isolated popularity metrics alone - including weeks in the Top 10, peak chart position, Spotify streams and TikTok engagement - a different name rose to the top.
RAYE’s WHERE IS MY HUSBAND! shows an 86% chance of winning based purely on momentum and public engagement.
Following her historic BRIT dominance in 2024 and high-profile global performances - from Glastonbury’s Pyramid Stage to the Oscars and GRAMMY ceremonies - RAYE is an undeniable important cultural figure in music right now.
Also ranking highly on popularity metrics:
Interestingly, all three attended the prestigious BRIT School - reinforcing its ongoing influence on the UK music landscape.
For retail and hospitality brands, this analysis reinforces a powerful truth: music success isn’t random, it’s measurable.
The same principles that drive award-winning tracks - emotional connection, energy, familiarity, and sustained engagement - are the principles that drive powerful in-store audio experiences.
At Startle, we use data-driven insight in our background music solutions, creating environments that become part of a brand’s identity.
Because when music resonates, people remember how a space made them feel.
Our researchers used internal tools to identify the tempo (BPM) of the last 46 songs that won the BRIT Award for Song Of The Year; since its inauguration in 1977, and of those nominated for the award at the 2026 ceremony. We also used Musicstax to identify the energy (%), danceability (%), and positivity (%) of
each song, and Wikipedia to categorise each song’s film by genre and the ages of the artists. All data was collected between February 5th and 9th.
For the nominees, we also conducted research on their popularity within the charts, such as peak position and number of weeks in the top 10, alongside viewership on social media in comparison to their release dates, to compare the historic BRIT data with how listeners are engaging with the songs themselves.
We then compared these findings to see what we would predict based on previous winners versus current popularity.
Myles Smith Amy Martin Photography, CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), via Wikimedia Commons
Cynthia Erivo Thesavagenorwegian, CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), via Wikimedia Commons
Sam Fender Schwabenmodel, CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), via Wikimedia Commons
Olivia Dean Raph_PH, CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), via Wikimedia Commons
Raye Raph_PH, CC BY 2.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0), via Wikimedia Commons
Calvin Harris Carlos Delgado, CC BY-SA 3.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0), via Wikimedia Commons
Lola Young By Jamsterdodger - Own work, CC0 (https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=164328183)
Ed Sheeran Greg Williams, CC BY-SA 3.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0), via Wikimedia Commons
Ready to amplify your brand? Get in touch to find out how we can use music and tech to help you achieve your goals.
Elevate your brand with strategic music solutions, designed to build an impactful audio experience.
Elevate your brand with strategic visual solutions, from digital signage to branded TV, designed to build an impactful experience.
Proactive account management, free player replacements, end-to-end support… our Relentless Support™ team are just that - relentless.
Get in touch to find out how we can use music and tech to help you achieve your goals.
Find out more about how we can use music and tech to help you achieve your goals.
After spending years executing marketing activity for everything from water bottles to mortgages, Abbie was ready to take a step closer to her goal of working with a brand with music in its DNA. Enter: Startle. With a bachelors degree in Marketing and a Marketing Week Mini MBA in Marketing, she is in charge of our marketing activity, making sure to spread the word of Startle to as many brands as possible. When Abbie’s not working, you'll find her vinyl shopping to add to her collection or in the gym picking up heavy things or making enemies with a punching bag.
Say hello on LinkedInReady to amplify your brand? Get in touch to find out how we can use music and tech to help you achieve your goals.
Elevate your brand with strategic music solutions, designed to build an impactful audio experience.
Elevate your brand with strategic visual solutions, from digital signage to branded TV, designed to build an impactful experience.
Proactive account management, free player replacements, end-to-end support… our Relentless Support™ team are just that - relentless.
Find out more about how we can use music and tech to help you achieve your goals.
Find out more about how we can use music and tech to help you achieve your goals.
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